Conceptualizing Global Climate Change As 'Our Struggle'

Everyone now knows that global climate change is something that is definitely happening today. The warming is 'unequivocal' with 95% certainty of human's predominant contribution to the cause - about 90% increase in probability from the preceding IPCC report (Carbon Trust, 2013). The atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases including CO2, methane and nitrous oxide is clearly out of a predicted long-term trend of the Earth's atmospheric composition in the last 800,000 years at least (IPCC, 2014). Figure.1 below demonstrates a historical record of CO2, methane and temperature, derived from Antarctica's ice core Dome C. The rapid increase in both CO2 and methane since the 18th century is completely out of its long-term inter-glacial variation, which is generally accepted as being obliquity and precession driven (Jouzel, et al., 2007). Now, it is expected that the atmospheric temperature would go up to 3.7 - 4.8 degrees Celcius if the current emission levels remain the same by the end of the 21st century (IPCC, 2014).


Figure.1. A left graph shows historical levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (ppm), methane (ppb) and temperature (℃) over the last 800,000 years; A right graph consists of CO2 (ppm) and methane (ppb) over the last two millenniums. (Reference: Macmillan Publishers Ltd (2008) "Windows on the greenhouse" by Ed Brook, Nature 453: 291-292, in Environmental Defence Fund)


Similarly, there have also been anomalous rises in ocean surface temperature across the globe. This is attributed to the fact that ocean can absorb most of energy that enters into the Earth's climate system. In fact, 90% of all the energy has been stored into the ocean since 1971 (Light, 2014). Warmer ocean expands to raise sea levels that can cause economic and environmental destruction to coastal regions and islands, and trigger extreme weather through a greater amount of evaporation. However, what lacks in the analysis, I think, is that it is unable to draw a full picture of the potential effect of so-called 'still-inactive stored energy' in the ocean to the climate system in the future. What I specifically mean is that we cannot be sure whether the relationship between ocean temperature and the climate are in linear or logarithmic relationship, and therefore, whether the current rate of increasing and intensifying extreme weather would change in scale as more energy gets trapped in the ocean over time.

It is very simple - science cannot prove their prediction is 100% right nor wrong because of a number of limitations associated with their assumptions and methods. It is like sailing in the middle of the ocean where you only have a compass to guide yourself without a map. You know which direction you are heading to but never know if it is a right way to the destination you are aiming to reach. All you can do is to deduct from any signs like small islands, flow of the ocean, movement of fishes or birds to re-direct yourself to where you now think is an appropriate / better direction. Likewise, science is all about a sequence of observation and experiments that can or cannot provide you with a better prediction or solution. In the end, you have to make your own decision in whether to accept or decline the outcome.

Such uncertain and sometimes ambiguous elements of science have lost people's trust to some extent. Well, this is perhaps also blamed on to our tendency to over-trust scientists in providing a clear, definite answer to our question. However, in the context of global climate change, it might not be the case. What has been more problematic in our understanding about climate change over the last few decades, I suppose, is that many of us have failed to conceptualize it into something that is happening to our individual life, as 'our struggle'.

This is essentially due to the fact that spatial and temporal variation in the effect of climate change is very significant. Although temperature rises are expected in most parts of the world, the implication of the change in human's life is heterogeneous across the world (Thornton, et al., 2007). Their study suggests that whereas crop yields in Africa are expected to fall by 10-20% on average in response to future climate change, some regions are subject to increase. It is primarily because of topological variation in Africa, which plays an essential role in creating distinct rainfall patterns across the continent. For example, yields for maize generally increase at high altitudes while those at lower land see a drop due to increasing water stress when temperature rises. It is known as a temperature-driven increase in crop yields, with all other factors being equal (Thornton, et al., 2007).

Similarly, extreme weather is more intense in tropical regions because they absorb most of energy from the Sun and therefore temperature rises are the most significant. According to some numerical models, it is demonstrated that whereas global atmospheric temperature will go up to 4℃ by 2080 at the current rates of GHGs increases, it can rise up to 7℃ in southern Africa and 8℃ in East Africa (Independent, 2006). The estimation is very high and nearly double the global average level. Given that their lower socio-economic status, they cannot be well adapted to anomalous climatic events. Thus, climate change will certainly 'add more burdens to those who are already poor and vulnerable' (IPCC, 2007).

On the other hand, economically more developed countries, like USA, UK, Canada, France and Germany have tended to be and will likely to be less affected by climate change compared to the above regions. The fact is that these nations have been economically strong enough to ensure water, food and energy security more easily to meet their basic needs for life and economic activities, regardless of their actual physical potential. They are also better equipped with technology such as irrigation schemes and flood controls, which can help mitigate the effect of rising temperature or extreme weather induced by climate change  - truly technocentric viewpoint.

Therefore, despite some big steps have been made towards the global climate change negotiation recently, it is clear that their historical attitude of arrogance used to prevent their citizens from realizing climate change as their potential struggle. In other words, it is only a recent phenomenon that people started concerning over global climate change as something close to their personal life - concerns over geographically widespread outbreak of diseases due to warming; more frequent occurrence of torrential rain, typhoon or hurricane causing destruction of houses and loss of life; increased possibility to suffer skin cancer; crop failures, etc. Whatever personal experiences above and more, what is happening nowadays is that people are increasingly re-conceptualizing climate change as from something irrelevant into something that really affects their life. This, I think, is where community power is recognised and begins to develop.

With this in mind, I think that now it is time to talk about examples of community power. In the next post, I will review some historical examples of collective actions that took place in response to the growing awareness of global climate change. The biggest question I'm going to address in the upcoming weeks is whether community power is truly 'powerful' in a sense that can make a contribution to mitigating global climate change. Perhaps, too many ambiguous, buzzy words in political science. If you have any thoughts about power of community, personally or generally, please feel free to make a comment here. :) See you all soon!

Power of Collective Action

Over the past few decades, civil movements for global climate change are rapidly growing in number and scale. Perhaps, it follows the unprecedented rate of development in information technology that allows people to share their personal experiences relevant to climate change. Extreme weather, sea level rises, and increasing atmospheric temperature are some of the classic examples in the contemporary history of climate change.

As a result, people nowadays voice their opinions about climate change more easily and frequently on internet. This essentially has led to a rapid development of collective power, which goes beyond geographical boundaries that used to be a barrier to international/global actions for their common struggle.

Similarly, there has been a major shift in how people react to climate change at regional level. For instance, an increasing number of people now feel a sense of responsibility for potential consequences of their socio-economic activity that is being conducted in their home land. Among them is the emergence of community power where people assemble to take action for mitigating the effect of climate change. Hertford Energy Now is a good example of these. It is a non-profit organization that has promoted the development of community-owned energy generation in East Herts, England. They successfully installed solar PV panels in Mill Mead School, and they are currently on track to expand so-called 'HertsSolarSchools' across the region within the Phase 2 Project. This kind of community actions from the bottom is vital to practice a central government's policy such as Feed-in Tariff programme.

On the other hand, community power / collective action can also be politically active in mobilizing public opinion. Aizu Natural Energy Foundation, based in Fukushima, Japan, for instance, was launched in May 2013 two years after the Great East Japan Earthquake by a member of local inhabitants such as the representative partner of Yamatogawa Sake Brewery. In his interview, he criticizes Japanese government for leading the region to be economically dependent on surrounding cities:

"Before the earthquake, Fukushima had the food resources ten times more than the necessary amount in the prefecture, at about 1000%. And we had several GW electric facilities except nuclear power plants. There is an enormous potential of renewables available in Fukushima. However, almost all the energy produced in the region was distributed to the city areas, and then we bought it back by our selves. Fukushima was in a situation as if it is a colony of big city areas. Then, after the nuclear disaster, the strong will to overcome the situation grew inside myself, and I decided to pursue Fukushima's autonomous development" (Energy Democracy).

Their vision is to establish the local autonomy of energy and their micro-economy by introducing renewable energy into their region, mainly solar PV panels. Currently, the capacity of energy production running under this initiative exceeds 2.54MW. What is significant about this programme is that they are run by local people as well as being financially supported mainly by local banks and institutions (Energy Democracy). In other word, the regions is now moving forward to the rearrangement of local economy in structure by managing their demand-supply relationship by themeselves. Although their primary vision is not to mitigate climate change in regional level, their community action has certainly visualized recent political crisis in monopolized energy production in Japan. In this sense, community power can also play as a political power in civil society in whatever context.

Despite these successful stories, however, some argue that community power itself is no guarantee of success (Carter, et al., 1993). Particularly in less economically developed countries, there are a number of constrains associated with community action. For instance, many attempts have been made on installing water supply and sanitation programme in sub-Saharan Africa over the past few decades. However, they often ended up breaking down and being abandoned a few years after construction began. Carter, et al. reports on their paper that this is mainly because of the following three factors: local's unclear understanding of the existing problems with water supply and sanitation; their lack of awareness over beneficial impacts of the programme; and little understanding of factors that sustain their programme. The first two are summarized as lack of knowledge and awareness, and the third factor points out the fact that once a new system is introduced, investors often leave it to locals without developing maintenance programme ahead. Thus, governmental intervention in education and training as well as financial assistance are essential to some extent in order to sustainably manage a long-term local development still in many parts of the world.

To summarize above, although community power plays some key roles in mobilizing society, it is not always practically successful, depending on the socio-economic and political status of the region.

From next posts, therefore, I will explore many more cases of community power to discuss on this complex system, particularly by looking into roles it plays in shifting attitude and perspective of people towards global climate change. See you all next week!



Reference not to be hyper-linked:

Carter, R, Tyrrel S & Howsam P (1999) 'Impact and sustainability of community water supply and sanitation programmmes in developing countries', Journal of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management, 13: 292-296.